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Monday, September 16

100 Dime Max Bet - Cleveland (-6') by 20 at New York

Baker Mayfield or Trevor Siemian?

Who do you want to put your money on, a guy who threw 3 INTs last week but is also brash and bold while backing up his big words with big plays, or the guy who last started a game in December of 2017 and in his last 7 starts for the Broncos had 5 TDs, 10 INTs and was sacked 20 times?

I didn't think the Browns were going to the Super Bowl; I wasn't sure they were a serious playoff contender. Seeing them get blown out at home by Tennessee was a shocker, but when you treat the preseason so cavalierly that's what you get sometimes. Tonight I expect a focused effort, a more disciplined effort. 

18 penalties in the opener?

5 sacks allowed by the OL?

Final 8 games last year the Browns averaged 24 ppg and committed 6 penalties per game with Freddie Kitchens calling the plays and Gregg Williams as interim head coach. And Baker Mayfield was sacked a TOTAL of 5 times. Only difference in the OL is that guard Kevin Zeitler was traded to the Giants in the ODB deal.

Big stages bring out the best in Baker. Playing against a Jets' defense missing LB C.J. Mosley and DL Quinney Williams only helps. 

Siemian doesn't have a lot to work with while holding fort for mono-ridden Sam Darnold. New York's receiving corps is weak. Le'Veon Bell's shoulder is banged up.

I say Cleveland's defense rises to the occasion after getting shredded in the 2nd half by Tennessee last week and holds the Jets to 13 and Cleveland easily covers by two TDs. (Laying 6 1/2 the Browns cover by 14 1/2).

Sunday, September 15

50 Dime Winner # 20 of 30 - Dallas (-5') by 10 at Washington

And this is what I told you.....
I don't get how Dallas isn't - at minimum - laying -7 1/2 here.

The Pokes CRUSHED New York 35-17 in their opener and that was with Zeke really being a non-factor (13 carries, 52 yards) after signing just days earlier.

Then again, they didn't need him much with the way Dak Prescott was carving up Big Blue's secondary with 405 yards and 4 TDs.

Today Prescott gets to do the same against a Washington defense that couldn't stop Carson Wentz (313 yards, 3 TDs) once the Eagles got rolling last Sunday. Philly trailed 17-0 early before Wentz started hooking up with DeSean Jackson (8 catches, 154 yards) to spark a 32-27 rally. And the final score was only that close because the Redskins scored with 6 seconds to play.

After the game Jackson had, you better believe Amari Copper can't wait to face this lousy Washington secondary.

To few points to be laying for a Dallas offense that's going to score at least 31 in a road rout.

And what was the final score you ask? Cowboys 31-21

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Jay McNeil's Rating System

I believe the biggest mistake gamblers make is they put too much stock into win/loss percentages. They simply don't matter because every play - at least in my case and for any handicapper who is worth a grain of salt - is rated for money-management purposes.


I use a weighted scale - ranging from 10 dimes to 100 dimes - to rate my releases.


This rating system not only defines my success in terms of net profit at the end of the day, week, month or season, but it also gives you an idea of how strong each release is and how you should play it.


Two simple things to remember:


      1) In terms of ratings, clearly a 50 dime play is twice as strong

          as a 25 dime play; five times stronger than a 10 dime release.


      2) Base the size of your wagers on the percentage of your total

          bankroll for a given day.


To explain that second rule a bit further, let's say you've got $100 to play with on a Monday night and I've got a 50 dime play on the football game's side. You've got two ways to play it based on your personal bankroll allocation system. You could put all $100 down on the play because that's the maximum you're willing to risk on the game tonight. Personally, that's not how I would play it. It's a 50 Dime play. That's means it's half the size of my top-rated play, which is a 100 dimer as I noted above. So I would only be betting $50 on the play.

Again, you have to make the final decision, but either way, the biggest advantage of this easy concept: You never get in over your head by betting more than you have in your pocket.

Who is Jay McNeil?

My family moved to Vegas when I was seven. I grew up about 1/2 mile from where the Mandalay Bay now stands. You don't grow up in Sin City without knowing everything there is about gambling. Believe me, I was playing poker and betting sports long before any casino was going to let me through their doors.


My humble opinion: Being immersed in the gambling culture here in Las Vegas is crucial if you want to make a living betting on sports. The minute I turned 21, I started hanging out at the old Stardust sportsbook and that's where I got my greatest education from the seasoned gamblers and bookmakers, guys who were 25 to 50 years older than me. I listened and learned as they talked about spotting bad lines and how to handicap various factors into determining whether a number in football or basketball was distorted by public perception.


I took those lessons, learned them well, and then added another layer of knowledge thanks to something that totally escaped those old-school guys: the Internet. The world wide web allowed me to have eyes and ears at every football stadium and basketball courtside in the country. Beat-writers covering every scrimmage, every practice, every game, suddenly became my advance scouts.


I'm telling you straight-up: the Internet revolutionized the sports handicapping industry. I myself spend at least 4-6 hours a day scouring teams' web sites and local newspapers while handicapping. It's the difference between winning and losing.

When I have plays, you'll find them here and nowhere else online. No 800 numbers or tipsheets for me. This is my online home going forward.

I don't fear taking chances. Play big or go home. 

I don't fear losing, but I can't live with myself if I would sit here the day after knowing I didn't take a shot. That's the only regret I can't live with.

I might lose big, but I'd rather play big and win big more often than not because that's how you make money over the long term....not playing like a scared mouse.

Those that worry about losing, simply lose more than they win because fear clouds their judgment.