Daily Play Recap
10/14 - 50 Dime - Buffalo Bills - Win
10/13 - 150 Dime - Arizona Cardinals (-130) - Loss
10/12 - 150 Dime - Georgia Southern - PUSH
10/11 - 50 Dime - Maryland - Loss
10/10 - 50 Dime - Coastal Carolina - Loss
10/9 - 40 Dime - Jacksonville State - Win
10/8 - 40 Dime - Liberty - Loss
10/7 - 75 Dime - New Orleans Saints (-130) - Loss
10/6 - 100 Dime - Pittsburgh Steelers - Loss
10/5 - 150 Dime - Navy - Win
10/4 - 50 Dime - UNLV (-130) - Loss
10/3 - 75 Dime - Tampa Bay Bucs (-130) - Loss
10/2 - 50 Dime - San Diego Padres - Win
10/1 - 50 Dime - San Diego Padres (RL +130) - Win
9/30 - 75 Dime - Detroit Lions - Win
9/29 - 100 Dime - Baltimore Ravens - Win
9/28 - 100 Dime - Notre Dame - Win
9/27 - 50 Dime - Virginia Tech/Miami/Fla Over- Win
9/26 - 50 Dime - Army - Win
1st-Ever College 150 Dime Release of My Career
- Navy (-10) 34-7 at Air Force (10/5) -
- Check out my Analysis -
We have a Commander-in-Chief battle at noon Eastern time today in Colorado Springs, as the undefeated Naval Academy rolling strong at 4-0 straight up, and 3 straight covers takes on the 1-3 Falcons of Air Force who have dropped all 4 of their games against the spread.
The local kick-off time for this service academy game is 10 am, and normally I would shy away from backing the visitor coming from the Eastern time zone and laying double-digits, but you know as well as I know that the Middies are used to waking up early and the kick time will NOT be an issue!
The point spread will also be a non-issue, as the Navy has lost 4 in a row, and 7 of the last 10 in this series, and has been outscored 93-26 during their current 4 game series slide to the propeller heads and want major revenge.
The Midshipmen will be longing to not only win this game in quadruple revenge, but also win it big, and this season they have the tools necessary to do just that.
Second-year head coach Brian Newberry has brought in former Mercer head coach Drew Cronic to coordinate the offense, and Cronic has this team averaging 46 points per game as quarterback Blake Horvath has looked like the second coming of Roger Staubach with 12 touchdowns and a lofty 11 yards per carry when running with the pigskin.
The Falcons offense has not topped 21 points in any of its 4 games this year, and the Force has allowed 62 points in their last pair of losses.
Keep in mind that even though the Naval Academy has lost 4 straight to the Air Force, the Navy defense has not allowed more than 23 points in any of the last 3 setbacks, so it is doubtful to me that the Falcons are going to be able to post anywhere close to 20 points in today's home tilt.
Navy is the call here, and they are the call in a revenge (quadruple!) blowout.
Take the Middies to win by at least 17 points.
3rd-Ever College 100 Dime Max Wager Release
- Notre Dame (-6') 31-24 over Louisville (9/28) -
- Check out my Analysis -
Louisville is unbeaten at 3-0 and heads to South Bend as the 15th-ranked team in the land.
Notre Dame is 3-1 on the year and ranked 16th in the land, and they will be playing this game with a little payback in mind.
Last October the Irish got clipped in the Bluegrass State, 33-20 by the Cardinals, and you can assume Marcus Freeman and his team have not forgotten that loss as they take to the field under Touchdown Jesus today.
After suffering an embarrassing loss to Northern Illinois on the 7th, 16-14, the Irish have circled their wagons with back-to-back wins, 66-7 at Purdue, and 28-3 at home last week against Miami-Ohio.
Suppose Notre Dame can run the table the rest of the way, and run it convincingly. In that case, chances are the Irish can make the expanded 12-team playoff, and it all starts today against this Cardinals team that sure looked beatable last week at home against Georgia Tech.
Jeff Brohm's team was playing off a bye week, and although they covered the -9 1/2 points in a 31-19 win, the Cards scored the clinching touchdown while up 24-19 on a blocked field goal they returned for 60 yards and a touchdown to cinch the win.
Keep in mind Louisville was outgained 410 to 326 in total yards, and were bottled up for just 57 rushing yards, as the defense also scored on a fumble return. Hardly impressive if you ask me, and the Redbirds' previous pair of wins came against "powerhouses" Austin Peay and Jacksonville State.
Riley Leonard appears settled under center for the Irish. While Leonard was not the quarterback for Our Lady last year in the Irish's loss at Louisville, this is still a revenge game for Notre Dame and I see the Irish getting their revenge today. Notre Dame has covered 12 of their last 14 games played against the ACC, and they will cover today. Let's call this one Notre Dame 24 and Louisville 14.
Lay it with the Irish.
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Big Mike's Tompkin's Rating System
My focus, like any smart strategist, is on long-term success and building consistent profit over time.
As a seasoned analyst and former player, I like to keep things straightforward. That's why I developed the Yardage Rating System. It’s simple, intuitive, and keeps plays in perspective, just like measuring progress on the field.
At the top of my scale is the 100-yard play. This is my strongest recommendation, the kind of insight that doesn’t come along every day, but can make a significant impact when it does.
Now I realize listing a play in terms of "yards" is somewhat confusing, although I think conceptually it so much simpler that any "star" system that others use. So, for sake of clarity, I will bow down to pressure and substitute the word "dimes" for "yards" as so many other handicappers do at this site.
Back to my system....
When I have smaller releases, like 50- or 75-yard plays, they shouldn’t be overlooked. Their value is all about context, how I’m reading the game at that moment in relation to the current state of our bankroll.
Remember, it’s always about perspective. Each play has its place. Understanding that is key to making the most of my analysis.
Who is "Big Mike" Tompkins?
I've been in and around sports my entire life. Played three years of college football at the FCS level as a defensive lineman. At 6-7, 270 you know why they called me "Big Mike." Played basketball, too. After graduation, I was invited to the Buffalo Bills training camp, but an injury ended those dreams. I did, however, spend a few years playing Arena Football before I called it a career.
Bottom Line: I PLAYED the game. I KNOW the game.
With years of experience on the field and behind the scenes, I bring you an unmatched blend of knowledge and expert analysis. Understanding game strategies provides me insight and an edge when handicapping. I offer daily analysis that goes beyond the numbers.